MARKET MONITOR
Selected market data pulled from the Google Drive backup of the Rates & Markets Tracker. Only the high-signal series are shown; this intentionally excludes most secondary ECB lines and redundant tenors.
RATES / CURVE selected tenors
Bund 2YBund 10YBund 30Y
· Front-end repricing has outpaced the long end over the week, keeping the German curve flatter even as outright yields remain elevated.
RISK ASSETS indexed from 14 Aug
DAXS&P 500WTI
Key divergence: equities are broadly range-bound while oil has moved sharply higher, adding an inflationary impulse into already hawkish rates pricing.
INFLATION euro area
3.3%
Headline HICP has re-accelerated while core is lower at 2.4%. The gap matters for the rates narrative: energy is doing more of the near-term inflation work.
CREDIT CYCLE bank lending
4.4%
NFC loan growth y/y, up +1.1pp over 3M. M3 growth is also firmer at 3.4%, consistent with a strengthening financing cycle.
POLICY PRICING prediction market
ECB SEP
99.6%
hike probability
FED SEP
50.2%
hike probability
TRACKER NEWS latest entries
INTEGRATED READ DCM lens
Rates: Bund 10Y +7bp w/w and +18bp m/m. Curve: weekly bear flattening. Risk: DAX -2.0% w/w but VIX remains contained. Macro: headline inflation re-accelerated to 3.3%, while core sits at 2.4%. Credit cycle: NFC lending growth is strengthening. Overall: funding base is more expensive, but risk sentiment is not disorderly.